The Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the season, gets underway on Sunday and in the men’s draw all eyes will be fixed firmly on 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic.
The super Serb has won on his last four visits to Melbourne Park, failing only to do so in recent times in 2022 when he was an absentee, and he is going to start his title defence as a warm favourite.
Last season Djokovic made all four Grand Slam finals, winning in Australia, France and in the US, with his only disappointment coming when finishing runner-up to his nearest rival Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon.
Young Spanish pretender Alcaraz will be expected to serve up Djokovic’s biggest challenge in Australia, although Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will believe they can also make their presence felt.
There will be no fairytale return for 2022 champion Rafael Nadal, who ruled himself out after he sustained a muscle tear on his recent comeback at the Brisbane International.
Alexander Zverev, who helped guide Germany to United Cup success earlier this month, Brisbane International finalists Grigor Dimitrov and Holger Rune and in-form home ace Alex De Minaur are three lively outsiders that could also be capable of causing a stir.
Last season’s runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas will be hoping to go one better and three-time Grand Slam finalist Casper Ruud is another that has started the season well, so can not be ruled out.
However, tennis showman and home favourite Nick Kyrgios will miss a second consecutive Australian Open through injury.
- Jannik Sinner each-way
- Alex De Minaur each-way
Sinner Edging Closer To Grand Slam Glory
The draw has yet to be finalised for the Australian Open but the seedings have been confirmed and that means some of the gaps can be filled.
Late withdrawals may have an impact but it seems likely that top seed Djokovic will be housed in the top half alongside Medvedev, while Alcaraz, Sinner and Andrey Rublev will compete for a final berth from the bottom half.
Djokovic could also have in-form players Zverev and De Minaur in attendance in the top half, so he looks short enough in his bid to become the first player, male or female, to claim 25 Grand Slam titles, surpassing the achievements of Margaret Court (24).
With that in mind, the impressive Italian Sinner could be the man to upstage the legendary Serb and claim a much-deserved Grand Slam success.
Sinner finished 2023 as the hottest player on the ATP Tour, beating world number one Djokovic in the round-robin stage of the ATP Finals in Turin before repeating the trick a week later as he inspired Italy to the Davis Cup title in Malaga.
The back end of last season also saw Sinner claim titles in Beijing and Vienna, where he recorded wins over Alcaraz and Medvedev, while he defeated Australian top gun De Minaur to clinch his maiden Masters 1000 crown in Toronto in August.
The 22-year-old has yet to make a Grand Slam final but it is only a matter of time before he does as he has the power, athleticism and knowledge to go all the way to the top.
Sinner has made the quarter-final in four of his last eight Grand Slam appearances - he made the semi-final of Wimbledon last season - and his power-packed serve and ball-striking weapons make him a formidable opponent for anyone.
At world number three, he is now Italy’s highest-ever-ranked men’s player and Melbourne could provide him with the perfect platform for him to make his major breakthrough.
Sinner is guaranteed to avoid a higher-ranked rival until at least the semi-finals and choosing to find his groove at the Kooyong Classic exhibition in Melbourne rather than take part in lead-in tournaments such as the Brisbane International could prove to be a shrewd decision.
Sinner is third in the title betting at 13/2 and, with him set to avoid defending champion Djokovic until the final, that appears to represent excellent each-way value.
Home Support Can Spur De Minaur
Upsets have been hard to come by at the Australian Open, where only Roger Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Stan Wawrinka (once in 2014) have conjured up victory since Marat Safin’s success in 2005.
However, Federer has retired, Nadal is injured and Djokovic, set to turn 37 in May, is not guaranteed too much longer at the top.
Big-priced winners are tough to find but there are reasons to think the home crowd can enable De Minaur to go on a deep run.
The 24-year-old took down three top-10 players during the recent United Cup, including a 6-4 6-4 victory against Djokovic and a three-set triumph over Zverev, which saw him rise into the top 10 for the first time in his career.
A reproduction of those performances, with crowd support clearly going to enhance his chances, could see him challenge and he is a seven-time winner on the ATP Tour.
The Sydney star broke new ground when making his maiden 1000 final in Toronto in August, finding only Sinner too good, and he has reached the last-16 of the Australian Open in back-to-back years.
That bodes well as De Minaur has taken his game to new heights in the last 12 months and suggests he could produce a career-best effort and outrun title odds of 50/1.
The world number ten is likely to have to meet Djokovic before the final but the home favourite will have an army of support and he should take plenty of confidence from their recent meeting, when he won 97 per-cent of points on first serve and was not broken.
