It's the biggest meeting of the jumps season so far at Cheltenham from Friday to Sunday and that of course brings with it the race which kicks off the jumps season for real, the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
The famous handicap has been won by some stars in the past and this year’s £160,000 guaranteed feature has attracted a field of 14 runners.
Graeme Rodway provides his analysis on the big race as well as some other selections over the weekend, with the Paddy Power Gold Cup due off at 2.20 on Saturday.
Friday
1.45 - Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase ( 2m)
The feature handicap on the opening day is over two miles and Calico heads the market for Dan Skelton. However, the Skelton team have yet to hit top gear and it might be worth sticking with a bang in-form trainer in the shape of Nigel Twiston-Davies. He has an outstanding chance with GUY.
Guy was last seen contesting a stronger race than this at the Showcase meeting over course and distance last month and, while he couldn’t get to grips with the winner Dancing On My Own, he ran well enough in fifth. The winner that day was rated 151 and there is nothing higher than 140 in this.
The ease in grade might help Guy to lay up with the early pace and, if he can get into a better position, he might be capable of springing a surprise.
Ballybreeze could pose the biggest challenge to the selection. He returns for his first run following wind surgery and his last completion came in the Arkle over course and distance in March. This is a much weaker race than that and it’s easy to forgive his fall when going well at Market Rasen last time. The summer break should have freshened him up and he won first time last year.
Saturday
2.20 - Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2m4f)
The feature race of the weekend doesn’t look as strong as it has been in recent years and there is a good chance last season’s Turners hero STAGE STAR can defy a mark of 155 at his favourite course.
Stage Star is unbeaten in two starts over fences at the track and showed he can operate in a big-field handicap like this when landing an 11-runner event on Trials day in January. That victory was achieved in a good time and he proved it was no fluke when winning back here at The Festival.
He was disappointing when last seen in a Grade 1 at Aintree, but simply never looked happy that day. He didn’t jump or travel with any fluency and ran a flat race. Maybe he was still feeling the effects of his Turners exertions and he would be hard to beat if returning to that form after a summer break.
Unexpected Party was eight and a half lengths behind Stage Star in the Turners and has a realistic chance of reversing the places on 9lb better terms, but he will need to have improved in the interim and maybe the bigger danger will be Easy As That, who represents Venetia Williams.
Easy As That looked good when winning back-to-back at Haydock and Newcastle last season and is better than he showed at Sandown on his last start of last season. He went off 6-4 favourite that day, but didn’t jump with any fluency and was never going. He must have had a problem.
Put a line through that run and Easy As That has a huge chance if he can pick up where he left off at Newcastle in February.
2.55 - Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (3m)
This competitive handicap hurdle might not be as strong as the numbers suggest and the topweight BUDDY ONE might be capable of outclassing his rivals under useful 7lb claimer Jack Gilligan.
The six-year-old has proven well suited by big-field handicaps this year. He was a close third of 21 behind Iroko in the Martin Pipe at this course in March and finished second of 20 to Fennor Cross in a hot contest at Aintree’s Grand National festival. Buddy One can clearly perform at the big meetings.
He proved that once again when running away with a hot handicap at Galway on his last outing and he was so dominant that a 9lb rise in the weights is unlikely to stop him following up, provided he comes into this race in the same form. There is every chance he will do after just a three-week break.
Gilligan’s 7lb claim helps offset the impact of 12st and Buddy One rates a good bet to continue his move up the staying ladder. There should be even more progress to come on his first start at 3m.
His two biggest dangers might be chasers returning to hurdles as Shan Blue is a class act when at his best and Dan Skelton will probably have targeted this race. However, the Skelton team has yet to hit top form and, with that in mind, I’d rather take a punt on win-machine Minella Trump at big odds.
Minella Trump has won 11 of his 22 starts and should find this hurdling assignment a lot easier than when midfield in the Grand National last time. He is also racing off a mark 8lb lower than his chase rating and, if there is to be an upset, it could come from this battle-hardened nine-year-old.
Sunday
2.55 - Shloer Chase (Grade 2, 2m)
The best race on Sunday can go to JONBON, who got better as the season went on last campaign and looks capable of making his mark as a two-miler this year, following back-to-back Grade 1 victories.
Jonbon was an impressive winner of the Celebration Chase at Sandown in April, when he had the reopposing Editeur Du Gite behind, and looks capable of taking another step forward this season.
Edwardstone will be the big danger if he can reproduce the form he showed when bolting up in the Tingle Creek last year and is better than he showed when beaten in the Champion Chase over course and distance last season. He might throw a spanner into the works if ready to go after 249 days off.
