The fourth day at the Goodwood Festival always brings with it one of the most competitive handicaps of the week, the Golden Mile.
The famous handicap is routinely one of the biggest betting races of the week and it carries a prize of more than £77,000 to the winner. There have been 18 runners declared over the turning mile.
Clive Gildon provides his analysis on the big betting heat at Goodwood's marquee meeting, where they race from 1.50-5.20, with the Golden Mile itself due off at 3.00.
Bet On Goodwood
3.00 – Golden Mile (1m)
The first thing to note about the Golden Mile is that it is one of the biggest draw races in the calendar. Perceived wisdom is that you simply must come from a low stall to have any chance of winning and it’s fair to argue that recent statistics back up that view.
No fewer than 14 of the last 20 winners came from stalls one to five and nine of the last ten winners were drawn in single-figure digits. However, Johan did score from stall 18 last year and Darkness was fourth from 15, so that goes to prove it isn’t impossible to have success from a wide stall.
When you factor in the point that every punter in the land will be looking for those drawn low, there might be value by going against the crowd and a couple in double-figure stalls catch the eye.
REVICH is the first. He was second in this race two years ago from a mark of 96 and races off just 93 this time around, so must have a chance if he can reproduce that sort of form.
He is also 2lb lower than when recording his last success at Ayr in September and is therefore dangerously well handicapped if he can put it all together.
That’s a big ‘if’ because he has shown nothing in three starts this season, but he wasn’t totally dismissed by the market in a hot race at the Chester May meeting last time and can be forgiven a disappointing run after racing at the back of the field and running wide.
He has been given an 84-day break since then and goes well fresh, so has evidently been teed up for this, and could go well from stall 16.
Dutch Decoy is out even wider in 20, but he is 3lb lower than when third in the race last season and is well handicapped judged on his best efforts.
He has steadily returned to form this season, too, and produced his best effort of the campaign when a close third behind Jungle Mac in a hot handicap at Newmarket’s July course two weeks ago.
Dutch Decoy has been nudged back up 3lb in the weights following that return to form, but he is still nicely treated off the same mark as for his last success and trainer Charlie Johnston will have his runner primed for this race.
Dutch Decoy looks like the best alternative to Revich with Joe Fanning, who has ridden him to two victories, back in the saddle taking over from Neil Callan.
SELECTION: REVICH
NEXT BEST: DUTCH DECOY
