Ten years ago Ireland had never won a Test in 28 attempts against New Zealand, four years ago they suffered a seventh Rugby World Cup quarter-final defeat against New Zealand, yet this weekend the Irish are favourites to unseat the All Blacks and reach their first World Cup semi-final.
Under first Joe Schmidt and then Andy Farrell, Ireland have won five of their last eight meetings with New Zealand, and while they have forged a clean path to the quarter-finals with four straight pool wins to make it 17 victories in a row, New Zealand have questions to answer after a big warm-up defeat to South Africa and then losing their opening pool match to France.
- Ireland to win by one to 12 points
- Under 21.5 first-half points
- Hugo Keenan to score a try
Ireland Hold The Aces
Farrell’s decision to name his team a day early not only told us that he is fully confident in the squad he has but that the boot is firmly on the other foot for this clash with New Zealand.
It used to be that the All Blacks were the team to beat and that opposition coaches had to think up ways to get past them. But this Ireland side have proved themselves so clinical and ruthless that they know their patterns and processes will be enough to secure victory whoever they face.
New Zealand are now the team who have to find something and on the plus side their attacking play since that opening defeat to France has been exceptional, as they have racked up 240 points and 36 tries in their following three pool games.
But they face a far tougher defence and with the stakes so high the emphasis for both teams will be on keeping a lid on the game rather than taking chances, and that’s where Ireland’s emphasis on process gives them an edge over New Zealand’s reliance on flashes of brilliance.
Savea form crucial for the All Blacks
Opening Exchanges To Be Tight
Ireland faced a potentially tough schedule as their final two pool matches were against tier-one sides South Africa and Scotland, but they built their way to those matches in impressive style.
Ireland conceded just three first-half points in those matches and their tireless defence looks a match for New Zealand’s on-fire attack.
The All Blacks scored within two minutes against France and Ireland are sure to be focused on stopping any early inroads.
Keenan in try scoring form
Keenan A Big Price To Cross
New Zealand have conceded only four tries in the pool stage at this World Cup but all four were scored by back-three players and Ireland full-back Hugo Keenan stands out at around 5/1 to grab a try.
Wingers Mack Hansen and James Lowe have led the way for Ireland but both had to overcome injury concerns to start this game.
Keenan scored in the opener against Romania and bagged a brace against Scotland last time out, and in a game that may be hard to open up, he should be in a good position to pop up anywhere across the backline in attack.
Ireland vs All Blacks Teams
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Johnny Sexton (c), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Bench: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Jimmy O’Brien
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Bench: 16 Dane Coles,17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
