Ireland’s first Classic of the season is the €500,000 Irish 2000 Guineas and it takes place at the Curragh on Saturday. A rather small field of eight has been declared for the big race and the English Guineas winner is absent.
This means a new Classic winner is guaranteed to be crowned so we’ve assessed the chances of all eight runners and provided a verdict.
The market suggests that the winner is going to be a Richard Hannon-trained British raider who placed in the Guineas at Newmarket or an Aidan O’Brien horse making its seasonal debut.
Whilst O’Brien’s first-time-out record with three-year-olds this season would tell you that one of the Richard Hannon-trained pair is the right route to take, it’s always hard to rule out a Ballydoyle runner.
Three of the last 10 winners have been trained by O'Brien, including the brilliant Paddington in 2023, and he holds the all-time record with 12 victories in the race.
Runners
Rosallion was a good winner of the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc day and he managed to get the better of Unquestionable by a length. Richard Hannon’s colt then went straight to the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket where he found only the winner Notable Speech too good. That’s the best piece of three-year-old form on offer and he’s entitled to win here on that evidence.
River Tiber was an excellent early season two-year-old and he looked smart when winning the Coventry Stakes. Third behind Vandeek on his next two starts, those efforts over 6f suggested that he’s ready for a step up in trip but there’s no guarantee that he’ll get a mile.
Unquestionable perhaps didn’t quite live up to expectations last year but his form at the back end of the season was much improved. Runner-up to Rosallion in a French Group 1, he followed that up with a smooth victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. This horse is arguably Aidan O’Brien’s best chance of a winner.
Haatem bolted up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket in April and followed that up with a creditable third in the 2000 Guineas. Richard Hannon’s second string is clearly a talented performer but he perhaps looks vulnerable from a win point of view.
Mountain Bear has been beaten by both Haatem and Unquestionable but his best effort to date came when second to the latter at Santa Anita. It’s hard to be too confident in his chances though and he’ll probably need the run here.
Atlantic Coast narrowly beat Bright Stripes in a Group 3 at Leopardstown last season and looks a tad overpriced. Disappointing on his reappearance last month, he should improve significantly for it and could outrun his substantial odds.
Bright Stripes won a Listed race over course and distance last time out and he showed some good form as a two-year-old. He probably looks a bit out of his depth at this level and it would be a huge shock if he was to win here.
Take Me To Church absolutely bolted up in the Madrid Handicap at Naas in March and last year’s winner scored in the very same race en route. Ground conditions are very different here, however, and he was well beaten in a Group 3 last time out.
