The F1 season received a welcome shake-up when Max Verstappen's dominant run was disrupted by brake problems in Australia, but the world champion is expected to get back to winning ways in the Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday (06:00 BST).
Carlos Sainz Jr. took advantage to win in Melbourne, giving Ferrari fresh hope of challenging Red Bull in the championship this season, but now the drivers head to a track which suits the leading team perfectly.
- Sergio Perez each-way
- Lando Norris podium finish
- Yuki Tsunoda points finish
Red Bull Better Than Ever In Japan
The good news for Red Bull's rivals is that the champions finally showed some vulnerability in Australia as Max Verstappen failed to win for only the second time in the last 21 races.
A faulty rear brake forced the Dutchman out of the action after just three laps when he had started on pole in Melbourne, but the rest of the field cannot rely on misfortunes such as that for success.
Verstappen still seems to have a clear edge over the improved Ferrari and McLaren, who have overtaken Mercedes to become the third-fastest team.
Reports suggest that Red Bull will be taking a major upgrade package to Suzuka and while that could bring teething problems with it, they would not be doing that if they did not expect it to improve the car and that could spell big trouble for their rivals.
There is little to be gained from backing Verstappen to win for the third time in four races this season at odds of around 1/5, but if the car is as strong as suspected at a track where Red Bull's aerodynamic superiority is usually clear to see, a one-two finish is on the cards.
Verstappen led home teammate Sergio Perez in the 2022 race in Japan, although the Mexican had a nightmare there last year, retiring from the race after two separate collisions.
He was able to follow Verstappen home in second place in both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia to start this season, though, and can be backed to do so again, either in the dual-forecast market or simply as an each-way bet on Perez at around 12/1.
McLaren Well Suited For Suzuka
The Japanese race is much earlier in the F1 calendar than it was in 2023 and McLaren had already made their huge mid-season leap forward when they went to Suzuka last September and claimed both podium spots behind race winner Verstappen.
The strength of the McLaren design is its tremendous performance in high-speed corners and that is what the figure-of-eight Suzuka track is all about.
None of the first three circuits this season have ideally suited the cars of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, but they have shown up well enough with three top-four finishes between them and both cars finishing in the top eight at every race so far.
A repeat of last year's double podium may be beyond them this time and the Ferrari is better in high-speed corners this year too, but Norris looks a decent bet to make another appearance on the podium after his third place in Australia.
Tsunoda Could Star At Home
At the start of the season the word was that if Visa Cash App RB driver Daniel Ricciardo beat teammate Yuki Tsunoda by a decent margin this year he would be in line to replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull.
Things haven't worked out like that so far, however, and the young Japanese driver outqualified his senior colleague by ten places in Melbourne before claiming the team's first points of the season by finishing seventh.
He knows the Suzuka track well having scored multiple victories there in Japanese junior series, and he also has an advantage this weekend as Ricciardo will not be driving in the first practice session in order for Tsunoda to be joined by young driver Ayumu Iwasa in an all-Japanese line-up.
With his car likely to be well-suited to the track, Tsunoda looks to have a strong chance of adding to his points tally with a top-ten finish in his home race.
