Max Verstappen won for the fifth time in seven races at Imola on Sunday but the 2024 F1 world championship suddenly looks far more competitive.
The odds for this weekend's Monaco Grand Prix (14:00 BST) certainly reflect that with Verstappen only just odds-on to win having been on offer at some extremely short prices in previous events.
McLaren's Lando Norris was less than a second behind the world championship leader at Imola having won the previous race in Miami, and Ferrari are also in the hunt for wins after upgrading their car for the the Emilia Romagna event.
Verstappen has won in Monte Carlo in two of his three world championship seasons, with Red Bull aiming for their fourth consecutive victory after Sergio Perez won the 2022 race.
- MAX VERSTAPPEN TO WIN
- LEWIS HAMILTON TOP-SIX FINISH
- PIERRE GASLY POINTS FINISH
Champion Should Still Have The Edge
Monaco remains a track where driver talent matters and Max Verstappen has shown that he has mastered the twisting street circuit with his victories in 2021 and 2023.
Rain has affected the last two events on the Cote d'Azur but race day is forecast to be dry this year although the practice and qualifying sessions could be affected by showers.
Verstappen will likely be happy to be heading to the streets of Monaco this week rather than a faster circuit as the improvements McLaren have made will likely have the greatest effect at high-speed tracks.
Monaco is the slowest circuit of the season and while McLaren's general improvement and increased downforce should be evident again, it's not an obvious place for them to take the victory.
Lando Norris was third in Monaco in 2021 and his team-mate Oscar Piastri managed a points finish in his F1 debut at the track last season, but the strongest challenge to Red Bull could come from Ferrari.
Charles Leclerc would love to win his home race but has a terrible record at his local track with his best finish being fourth in 2022 when his team threw away a likely victory with a tactical blunder.
This could be the year things finally go right for Leclerc in Monaco but his team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr. looks the better value of the pair as he has consistently impressed at the track and has finished runner-up in two of the last three seasons.
Hamilton Has Hopes Of Improved Result
Lewis Hamilton's final season with Mercedes is reinforcing the idea that he made the right decision to leave but he has made it into the top six at each of the last two races and could keep that run going at a circuit he loves.
Hamilton's hero Ayrton Senna was a master at Monaco, winning six times, and the Briton cherishes his three wins at the track, the most recent coming in 2019. He was fourth last year in a struggling car after starting fifth on the grid and while his enthusiasm for the sport appears to have been tested by Mercedes' recent struggles, returning to Monte Carlo should put a spring in his step.
Mercedes were lacking top-speed at Imola but that's not such a big issue at this week's twisting track and Hamilton can target at least another top-six finish.
Gasly Can Showcase Skills
There are not as many Monaco specialists in the current F1 field as used to be the case but Frenchman Pierre Gasly often shows up well at the track and can be fancied for a top-10 finish.
Gasly has an extremely solid Monte Carlo record of finishing seventh, fifth, sixth, 11th and seventh and while Alpine have been struggling, with only one points finish all season, this unusual circuit masks their deficiencies more than most.
Twelfth place in Miami was Gasly's best effort this season but Alpine have had four points finishes at Monaco in the last three seasons and should know how to set up their car for the track.
