It's the first Classic of the season at Newmarket on Saturday as the 2000 Guineas takes centre stage and the cream of the three-year-old crop are set to line up for one of the sport’s biggest prizes.
The famous Group 1 is a race which can turn a great horse into a sire and this year it carries a purse that totals £500,000 as a field of 11 go in search of Guineas glory on the Rowley Mile.
Clive Gildon provides his analysis on the big race as well as some other selections on 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket, where they race from 1.10-5.50, with the big one itself due off at 3.35.
3.35 – 2000 Guineas (Group 1, 1m)
It’s the biggest race of the season for three-year-old milers as the historic 2000 Guineas takes place on the Rowley Mile and it’s difficult to get away from the red-hot favourite CITY OF TROY.
The son of Justify was an outstanding juvenile last season when winning three out of three and his last two victories came at this track, one on the July course and one on the Rowley Mile.
He scored by six and a half lengths from recent Craven winner Haatem on the first occasion and pulled three and a half lengths clear of the remainder when successful in the Dewhurst in October.
It was good to soft ground for the first of his wins here and soft for the second, so he will have no problem if Newmarket gets the forecast rain, so he simply looks like a bombproof favourite.
If there is to be an upset then the only horse who looks to have the ability to trouble City Of Troy is Iberian, who beat two subsequent Group 1 winners when an easy winner of the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last season. Among them were Rosallion, who is shorter in the market for this race.
The problem for Iberian is that he was a long way behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst at this course in October, after which trainer Charlie Hills appeared to blame the soft ground.
The forecast rain might therefore not be ideal, but it was officially soft when he won at Doncaster and a reproduction of that form would give him a chance.
1.10 - Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed, 6f)
The Newmarker opener is a cracking Listed race for fillies and the one to be on is HERITAGE HOUSE, who has shaped quite well on her last two outings and might be capable of building on those runs.
The James Fanshawe-trained filly travelled strongly when fourth in a Listed race over course and distance in November on heavy ground and that proved she will have no problem with any rain.
She was 100-1 that day and returned from her winter break to go off at 150-1 in the Nell Gwyn over 7f at this course on her seasonal reappearance. However, she ran better than her huge odds suggested she would and finished fifth of the ten runners, four and a half lengths behind the winner.
The drop back to 6f promises to suit Heritage House here and, while she will need to step up again, she might just do that now that the hood she wore for her last start is removed.
1.45 - Heritage Handicap (6f)
There are two genuine Group horses towards the top of the handicap in this sprint. One is Noble Style, who won the Gimcrack as a juvenile, and the other is ROHAAN. Provided the forecast rain arrives it’s worth taking a chance on Rohaan cashing in on his drop back down the weights.
The six-year-old is only 1lb higher than when landing a 6f handicap at Ascot last season and he went off at only 11-1 for the British Champions Sprint, Group 1, back at that course on his next outing.
He was outclassed and beat only one home, but has returned from a winter break in good form this season. He was beaten only a length and a half into fifth over 6f at Lingfield on his reappearance and didn’t run badly when upped to 7f at Kempton last time. They didn’t go quick enough for him there.
That won’t be an issue now that he is dropped back to 6f and we know that he is better on a straight course than a turning one. He shaped well when behind Group 1 winner Creative Force on his sole start on the Rowley Mile and might have a class edge against several exposed handicappers.
2.55 - Palace House Stakes (Group 3, 5f)
It has long looked like MITBAAHY is a sprinter capable of multiple Group wins and the five-year-old has an outstanding chance to make it second time lucky since joining the Charlie Hills stable.
There aren’t many better at training sprinters than Hills and Mitbaahy showed loads of promise on his debut for the yard in the Abernant over 6f at this course last month. He was held up at the back by Jamie Spencer, but kept on nicely though the field and was no closer than his fourth at the finish.
Mitbaahy won over 6f on soft ground at Chester last season, but has loads of form over 5f and maybe the return to the shorter trip will suit him, especially if the rain arrives to place the emphasis on stamina.
He needs a strong pace, so should have no problem getting that back over the minimum distance, and there is every chance that he will be sharper for his seasonal return this time.
Hills won this race with Khaadem for the same owner a couple of years ago and will almost certainly have had the contest on his mind for Mitbaahy since he joined the yard. This is his big day and it’s worth backing him to take full advantage.
