Taking the Under has proved a profitable play in the NFL this season with 83 of the 136 games in the book so far failing to hit the prescribed points mark.
It is a statistic worth keeping in mind going into the Week 10 slate of games in which two struggling teams meet on Thursday Night Football before the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots take their losing records over to Germany for the final International Series game of the season.
Recommended five-fold: Under 40 points in Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears, under 23 Indianapolis Colts points, over 38.5 points in Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons on the Money Line and Las Vegas Raiders +0.5 on first-half spread @ 22/1.
- Under 40 points in Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears
- Under 23 Indianapolis Colts points
- Over 38.5 points in Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
- Atlanta Falcons on the Money Line
- Las Vegas Raiders +0.5 on first-half spread
Panthers @ Bears
Two of the worst teams in football with two of the least effective offenses around meet on Thursday Night Football.
The prime-time audience should not expect to see many highlight-worthy plays from the 1-7 Carolina Panthers or 2-7 Chicago Bears, neither of whom has hit the 20-point mark in either of the last two weeks.
The Panthers gifted a 27-13 win to the Indianapolis Colts with rookie QB Bryce Young intercepted three times last week in a disappointing follow-up to grinding out a first win of the season in a low-scoring affair with the Houston Texans.
The Bears broke down in the second half of their 24-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints, one week after flopping 30-13 at the Los Angeles Chargers.
Solid defense cannot be associated with either of these teams, although the Panthers are better than their stats suggest, but weak offenses under a national TV spotlight are liable to underwhelm.
Colts @ Patriots
The 2-7 New England Patriots will hope a change of scene can reignite their almost fully-extinguished playoff prospects when they head to Germany to face the 3-5 Indianapolis Colts.
QB Mac Jones has, more often than not, carried the can for New England's failures in 2023.
But his play last Sunday put the Patriots in position to at least take the Washington Commanders into overtime before an unfortunate drop from receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster landed in the hands of an opponent for the game-sealing turnover.
Meanwhile, no one in Indianapolis should be getting carried away by the Colts' 27-13 win over the Carolina Panthers, who are possibly the worst team in the league at present.
More than half of Indy’s point total against Carolina came off pick-sixes and, against the NFL's worst defense for points allowed per game, the Colts amassed only 198 yards.
New England's defense is better and, as long as Jones avoids turnovers, should not give many points away to the Colts this week.
Mac Jones showing better form
Browns @ Ravens
The two strongest teams in the AFC North face off for the second time this season with the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens favoured to get the win at home to the 5-3 Cleveland Browns once more.
The Ravens blew the Browns away 28-3 in their Week 4 meeting in Ohio when Cleveland's rookie backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw three interceptions on his NFL debut.
But this clash should be much closer now that starter Deshaun Watson is rediscovering his groove. The Cleveland QB went 19-30 for 219 passing yards and two touchdown strikes on his return from a shoulder injury in beating the Arizona Cardinals 27-0 last Sunday.
The Ravens were also missing six regulars the last time they faced the Browns, including receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, and they could be even more effective in putting points on the board with more viable targets at Lamar Jackson's disposal.
They scored four offensive touchdowns in a 37-3 hammering of the Seattle Seahawks last week and have now scored 31 points or more in each of the last three weeks.
Seven of the last 10 clashes between these rivals have seen 43 or more points scored while three of the Browns' four games following a win this year have also landed over the points total.
Falcons @ Cardinals
The 4-5 Atlanta Falcons will look to snap a two-game losing skid when they take on the 1-8 Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on Sunday.
Atlanta fell to a heartbreaking 31-28 defeat against a depleted Minnesota team last Sunday when QB Josh Dobbs, newly acquired from Arizona, came off the bench to lead the Vikings to victory with two TD passes.
The Falcons could face Kyler Murray on his return from a long-term lay-off this week, but they have enough offensive production to put this matter beyond the Cardinals' reach even with their franchise starter back in the fold.
Atlanta are averaging over 350 yards of total offense with a healthy 5.4 yards per play over their last two games while Arizona managed a measly 17 passing yards and 41 rushing yards at Cleveland last week.
The return of Murray is not yet certain and Arizona lost two starting offensive linemen against the Browns when they were already missing starting tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Michael Wilson.
Their injury situation is pretty dire and suggests the Falcons can get their season back on track with the win.
Murray could make a return
Jets @ Raiders
The 4-4 New York Jets head to Las Vegas to face a resurgent Raiders team who played their best football of the season when thrashing the New York Giants 30-6 last weekend.
Sacking head coach Josh McDaniels brought fresh impetus to the Silver and Black as interim appointment Antonio Pierce came in with a positive gameplan and helped instill belief in a confused set of players.
The 4-5 Raiders should be favourites to follow up that big win against a Jets team who slumped to a 27-6 defeat at home to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday.
That came after a slightly fortuitous win the previous week over the same Giants team who were destroyed by Las Vegas, and New York now have to contend with a cross-country trip out west on a short week.
The Jets' big problem this year has been their slow starts and even a defense with as many playmakers as theirs cannot keep hauling them back into games from two-score deficits.
Gang Green are averaging less than two points in the first quarter of games and less than seven for the first half while Vegas have been scoring an average of just over 10 before the interval.
RAIDERS +0.5 ON 1ST HALF SPREAD
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