The shortened Rugby Championship began with a bang last weekend as South Africa and New Zealand put down markers to set the stage for a winner-take-all showdown in Auckland on Saturday.
The Boks beat down Australia 43-12 in Pretoria in the tournament’s curtain-raiser before the All Blacks made light work of their encounter with Argentina in Mendoza.
New Zealand return home buoyant after their 41-12 victory and are the favourites to win what is likely to be the title decider with South Africa, with only one more round of the Rugby Championship to go after this round of fixtures.
While New Zealand and South Africa fight it out for the top prize, Saturday’s second offering in Sydney could go a long way to deciding the Rugby Championship’s Wooden Spoon recipient as Australia play host to Argentina.
New Zealand v South Africa
Mount Smart Stadium, 8.05am BST
- South Africa +7
- Ardie Savea anytime tryscorer
All Blacks Face Stern Test
New Zealand have won ten of their last 13 meetings with South Africa and are generally priced up on the handicap as a seven-point favourite for their only home game of this year’s Rugby Championship.
The comfortable victory over Argentina stretched their unbeaten run to eight matches, seven of which have been wins, and a ninth Rugby Championship title in the last 11 years would maintain the momentum for Ian Foster’s side going into the Rugby World Cup.
Having had their issues at times last season under Foster, who had faced calls to be sacked, it was tough to find fault with the seven-try thrashing of the Pumas, in which Damian McKenzie played a starring role.
The Chiefs fly-half was given a rare start by Foster and pulled the strings for New Zealand, who were 31-0 up at half-time.
The All Blacks played with more tempo and guile than in the majority of their 2022 Tests and will fancy their chances of a 33rd win over South Africa in the 46th meeting on New Zealand soil.
However, the Boks have avoided defeat on their last two trips to the Land of the Long White Cloud and should be the fresher of the two teams.
While Foster took a strong squad to the other side of the world, including taking but not playing Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock, South Africa sent an advanced party to New Zealand to prepare for this clash.
Among the 14 to arrive early were skipper Eben Etzebeth, Cheslin Kolbe, Makazole Mapimpi and Damian de Allende, with that quartet among ten changes made to the starting line-up from the win over Australia.
New Zealand’s win in Argentina was impressive but was arguably topped by South Africa’s demolition of the Wallabies as the Boks made almost double the number of metres carried than the All Blacks.
The margin of victory at the Loftus Versfeld Stadium could have been wider as South Africa wasted chances to add to their six-try haul and they’ll need to be more clinical in Auckland.
Jacques Nienaber’s selection for round two, which features a 6-2 split of forwards and backs on the bench, suggests they’ll be more conservative against New Zealand. But having shown how their backs can perform when given licence to carry and with an X-factor of a fly-half in Manie Libbok on the bench, Nienaber does have options up his sleeve.
South Africa are world champions for a reason and given their habit of coming good in a World Cup year, they are worth supporting on the handicap to at least keep it close against New Zealand.
Kolbe to lead the Boks charge
Savy Savea To Stay Hot
Recent Rugby Championship meetings between the sides have tended to produce plenty of scoring with two of the last three containing at least 58 points.
South Africa won’t want the game to be too open but will find it hard to stay on top of New Zealand, who looked to have added to their attacking bag of tricks in Argentina.
Ardie Savea was among the All Blacks tryscorers in Mendoza, maintaining his excellent run of getting over the whitewash for club and country in the last 12 months.
The number eight scored eight times in 12 matches for the Hurricanes in Super Rugby this season, while he’s touched down three times in his last six international outings and is worth chancing to score again on Saturday.
Savea backed to score
All Blacks v Springboks Teams
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Braydon Ennor, 23 Caleb Clarke
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Thomas du Toit, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 21 Duane Vermeulen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Eddie Jones demanding imporovement
Australia v Argentina
CommBank Stadium, 10:45am BST
- Australia to win by one to 12 points
Little To Separate The Two
Australia and Argentina were left licking their wounds after last weekend and will be desperate for a positive response in Sydney.
This feels like a bigger game for the Wallabies than the Pumas, though, as Eddie Jones takes charge on home soil for the first time in his second spell as head coach.
A lot of the optimism created by Jones’ return was washed away by a punishing trip to South Africa, in which the Aussies’ pack was overwhelmed, while some of Jones’ selection gambles failed to pay off.
They look likely to be without Michael Hooper for the visit of Argentina, who inflicted a record defeat on Australia the last time the sides met.
That was the Pumas first win in eight against the Aussies and while their pack should give the hosts issues, overall they may lack the weaponry needed to make it back-to-back wins.
Wins haven’t come easy for either side recently - it’s two wins in nine for Australia and one victory in seven for Argentina - but the Wallabies tend to perform better on home soil, while Jones will be desperate for any kind of success.
When Australia have been successful of late, it hasn’t been by much with four of their last five victories coming by eight-point margins or fewer.
Saturday’s clash is both nations’ best chance to pick up a victory in this year’s Rugby Championship so expect a fiercely competitive game with Australia edging out Argentina by one to 12 points.
AUSTRALIA TO WIN BY 1-12 POINTS
Wallabies skipper Hooper sidelined
Australia v Argentina Teams
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Jed Holloway, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Richie Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 David Porecki, 1 James Slipper (c)
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Pone Fa’amausili, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Rob Leota, 21 Josh Kemeny, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Carter Gordon
Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Rodrigo Isgro, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Berntranou, 8 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 7 Santiago Grondona, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 2 Julian Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Lucas Paulos, 20 Rodrigo Bruni, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Nicolas Sanchez, 23 Matias Moroni
