The 2024 Six Nations kicks off with a heavyweight Friday night showdown between France and Ireland, a match that is already being billed as the title decider.
These teams were Grand Slam winners in the last two seasons, and France are narrow favourites to regain the crown they lost last year given they have home advantage for this crucial clash.
They won’t be playing in Paris this year as the French capital gets ready for the summer Olympics, but the hostile cauldron of the Stade Velodrome in Marseille is as intimidating a venue for visiting teams as there is.
On Saturday England kick off their campaign with a trip to Italy, a fixture they have never lost, while Wales and Scotland meet in Cardiff.
- France to beat Ireland by one to 12 points
- Italy +17 v England
- Scotland -2 v Wales
WATCH IN THE ZONE WITH MIKE TINDALL
France vs Ireland
The champions of the last two Six Nations tournaments get proceedings underway on Friday night and it looks sure to be a thrilling encounter.
Both teams disappointed at the World Cup at the end of last year, going out in the quarter-finals, and are having to rebuild with key players absent.
France are without last year’s all-conquering half-backs Antoine Dupoint and Romain Ntamack, while Ireland fly-half Johnny Sexton has retired.
New combinations will be in place and that could lead to a disjointed and cagey performance from two sides who have been famed in the past for their ambitious attacking play.
Ireland coach Andy Farrell puts a lot of emphasis on structure and his players have shown themselves able to launch wave after wave of attacks at pace that have proved so hard to resist. However, that takes time to put in place and perfect, so it may be a while before we see them hit the heights of 12 months ago.
It’s a fixture neither team can afford to lose so defence and territory look set to be the priority for both nations.
Last year in Dublin Ireland won comfortably 32-19, but even that game was nip and tuck until Garry Ringrose scored a decisive try in the final ten minutes, and the 13-point margin was the biggest since the 2015 World Cup, and the biggest in a Six Nations match since 2010.
The previous 12 Six Nations matches between the two had been decided by no more than 12 points, a run that included successive draws in 2012 and 2013.
Buoyed by their home crowd and their strong pack, France should edge it, but there may be little to separate the teams again.
FRANCE TO WIN BY ONE TO 12 POINTS
France vs Ireland Teams
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Yoram Moefana, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (c), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Paul Willemse, 4 Paul Gabrillagues, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Paul Boudehent, 21 Cameron Woki, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Louis Bielle-Biarrey
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony (c), 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Ryan Baird, 21 Jack Conan, 22 Conor Murray, 23 Ciaran Frawley
Italy vs England
In their 24-year run in the Six Nations Italy have claimed at least one victory over every team - except England, who they face in their opening fixture in Rome.
They have pushed England close on a few occasions - the Azzurri lost consecutive home fixtures in 2008, 2010 and 2012 by four, five and four points. But England have covered big handicaps on four of their last five trips to Rome, and in those five fixtures they have outscored their hosts by an aggregate of 29 tries to three.
Having ended a run of 36 tournament defeats with a win in Cardiff in 2022, Italy reverted to type in 2023, losing all five games, and they suffered heavy defeats to France and New Zealand at the World Cup.
If there’s hope for Italy in their opening fixture, though, it’s that they come up against a new-look England side who have been further unsettled by key injuries in the build-up to the match, while the Azzurri have also shown more of a cutting edge of their own.
In the early days of the Six Nations the Azzurri seemed to be all about damage limitation and keeping their opponents’ score down, but with dangerous wide players Monty Ioane and Ange Capuozzo there is much more of a try scoring threat.
England have six uncapped backs in their squad - Jonny May, Joe Marchant, Manu Tuilagi and Owen Farrell are all missing from the backline that started their World Cup semi-final against South Africa, while top scorer at that tournament Henry Arundell is also unavailable - and an unfamiliar defensive unit could be tested by the hosts.
Italy vs England Teams
Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Pietro Ceccarelli, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Edoardo Iachizzi, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Lorenzo Pani
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Ethan Roots, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George (c), 1 Joe Marler
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Danny Care, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso
Wales vs Scotland
Cardiff has been an unhappy hunting ground for Scotland, who have not won at the Principality Stadium since 2002, a run of 11 defeats.
They did claim victory in this fixture in the 2020 championship at an empty Parc y Scarlets, and now they have a fine opportunity to break their sequence.
The Scots came close on their last visit in 2022, going down 20-17 to a Dan Biggar drop goal ten minutes from time when fly-half Finn Russell was in the sin bin, while last year in Edinburgh Scotland recorded their biggest win over Wales with a 35-7 success.
The teams appear to be moving in different directions and that may be even more marked this year as Wales have had to overhaul their squad. Biggar is one of a host of players to call time on their international career, and his first-choice back-up Gareth Anscombe is unavailable so the number-ten shirt is likely to be handed to eight-cap Sam Costelow.
Just six of the 15 players who started Wales’s last Six Nations match of 2023 are in the squad this year and a lack of experience may show.
Compared to their rivals Scotland have probably the most settled squad in the championship, with Finn Russell pulling the strings and dangerous backs Duhan van der Merwe, Blair Kinghorn, Sione Tuipulotu and Darcy Graham outside him.
Scotland are rightly favourites for this and a win by three points or more looks well within their compass as they look to kick off a campaign full of promise.
Wales vs Scotland Teams
Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins (c), 3 Leon Brown, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Corey Domachowski
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Alex Mann, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady
Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (c), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Luke Crosbie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Cameron Redpath
