The UFC makes its return to New York City with the UFC 295 pay-per-view event taking place at the iconic Madison Square Garden arena. The card features a vacant light heavyweight title bout as former champion Jiri Prochazka returns to action against former middleweight king Alex Pereira. The co-main event features a short-notice interim heavyweight title encounter between the streaking Sergei Pavlovich and talented prospect Tom Aspinall, as the super matchup was cancelled with Jon Jones injured and unable to face Stipe Miocic. Let’s take a look at all of the action taking place this weekend.
UFC 295 Prelim Card
Featherweights kick off the action as Dennis Buzukja battles Jamall Emmers in a battle of Americans.
Joshua Van fights Kevin Borjas in a flyweight bout. The Peruvian fighter Borjas is a feel good story with a big upset win over Victor Dias at Dana White’s Contender Series 57, however Van should get the victory and improve to 9-1 in this encounter.
John Castaneda takes on Kang Kyung-ho in a bantamweight collision. This should be competitive with Castaneda emerging victorious in the end.
Lightweight veteran Jared Gordon takes on Mark Madsen in a 155-pound contest. Flash is expected to get the victory, but the power and determination of the Olympic wrestling medalist Madsen is one of my favorite dogs to get an upset.
Lightweights are also in action as Nazim Sadykhov takes on Viacheslav Borshchev. This is a close one, but Sadykhov should get the edge over the Russian fighter.
Mateusz Rebecki takes on Roosevelt Roberts in a lightweight encounter. This should be straightforward with the Polish fighter earning the victory as the biggest favorite on the card.
Tabatha Ricci takes on Lupita Godinez in an intriguing women's strawweight fight. Mexican Godinez is expected to emerge victorious in this affair in this top 15 ranked showdown.
The featured prelim sees Steve Erceg take on Alessandro Costa in a flyweight tilt. Expect Erceg that is ranked as the #14 contender to come away with the victory in this contest as he
UFC 295 Main Card
Lopes (22-6) vs Sabatini (18-4)
The UFC 295 main card opens up with a featherweight tilt as exciting Brazilian Diego Lopes takes on Pat Sabatini. Lopes earned his first win in the UFC with a first-round submission over Gavin Tucker in August.
Sabatini is also coming off a submission win over Lucas Almeida in June to return to the win column following his TKO defeat to Damon Jackson last year. Overall, the American is 5-1 in the UFC and is just about favored to earn the victory to kick off the card.
Frevola (11-3-1) vs Saint-Denis (12-1, 1NC)
An exciting lightweight encounter is on the main card as well, as Matt Frevola battles Benoit Saint-Denis. Frevola has won his last three fights with all of them coming by way of first-round knockout. That run includes notable victories over Ottman Azaitar and Drew Dober.
Saint-Denis, on the other hand, is on a four-fight winning streak with finishes in all of them. His most recent victory was a second-round TKO win over Thiago Moises in September. He is expected to make it five wins in a row as he is a solid favorite to come out on top against Frevola that is ranked as the #14 lightweight contender.
Andrade (24-12) vs Dern (13-3)
Former women’s strawweight champion Jessica Andrade battles Mackenzie Dern in a 115-pound contest. Andrade has not been in the best form. She has lost her last three straight fights although they were against top opponents in Erin Blanchfield, Yan Xiaonan and Tatiana Suarez. The powerhouse Brazilian has blamed personal issues and the need for money for her losing streak, which she plans to end.
Dern, meanwhile, is looking to go on her first winning streak since 2020 as she has alternated between wins and losses. Her most recent outing was a unanimous decision victory over Angela Hill in May. She should make it two wins in a row against Andrade unless the fight turns into a slugfest. This top-10 fighter showdown should be a good one, but Dern should be able to make the most of grappling exchanges to control this one to get a decision victory.
Pavlovich (18-1) vs Aspinall (13-3)
Heavyweight champion Jon Jones was originally supposed to headline UFC 295 against Stipe Miocic. However, “Bones” injured his shoulder in training which allowed Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall to step in and compete for the interim title. Pavlovich has been red hot ever since suffering his only career defeat against Alistair Overeem back in 2018. Since then, the powerhouse Russian has won six in a row with all his wins impressively coming via first-round knockout. That run includes notable wins over Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes.
Aspinall has been equally impressive as he is 6-1 in the UFC overall with his only loss coming to Blaydes as a result of a knee injury. Other than that, the Englishman has finished all his opponents with notable wins over Serghei Spivac, Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura. This should be a very competitive contest between two of the most promising young heavyweights in the division. I like Aspinall to get it done. The #4 ranked contender has the speed and power to stop Pavlovich, and I see this happening early.
Prochazka (29-3-1) vs Pereira (8-2)
The main event should be an explosive battle between two of the best strikers in the division. Jiri Prochazka returns to action for the first time since the summer of 2022 when he won the light heavyweight strap in a back-and-forth war with Glover Teixeira that eventually saw him sink in the submission.
However, his reign was short-lived as a severe shoulder injury required him to go under the knife and vacate his title. However, the Czech Republic's star is back and looking to reclaim the belt he never lost inside the Octagon. Prochazka is 3-0 in the UFC and hasn’t suffered defeat in his last 13 fights dating back to December 2015.
Pereira, meanwhile, is coming off a successful light heavyweight debut after outpointing former champion Jan Blachowicz in July. Overall, he is 5-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to Israel Adesanya earlier this year to lose his middleweight title. The Brazilian is huge, and size should be no problem as he further adjusts to being a light heavyweight.
Given Pereira’s previous struggles against Blachowicz and Adesanya on the ground, one would assume that’s the best course of action for Prochazka. However, Jiri is a chaotic striker who prefers to stand and bang rather than grapple which could end up being his downfall. Potan, newly inducted into the GLORY Hall of Fame, is a lethal striker with a nuclear left hook that can stop any fight. This should be an extremely entertaining fight while it lasts. I like the slight favorite Pereira to get a stoppage on his way to becoming a two-weight UFC champion.
