We’re in the final weeks of the season across Europe’s top divisions and there’s still plenty of play for. While the title race is over in Germany and Italy and all but concluded in Spain, those three leagues still feature battles for European spots and a late scramble for survival.
With some key games taking place across all three of those leagues this weekend, we’ve picked out a best bet from each. All three legs of this treble take place on Sunday, where backing three home sides in need of a victory could prove shrewd.
Recommended treble: Bologna to beat Udinese, Mainz to beat Cologne with a -1 handicap, and Villarreal to beat Rayo Vallecano.
- Bologna to beat Udinese
- Mainz to beat Cologne with a -1 handicap
- Villarreal to beat Rayo Vallecano
Bologna vs Udinese
Bologna are coming to the close of an incredible season, with the club fourth in Serie A and almost assured of a place in next season’s Champions League. Boss Thiago Motta has established himself as one of Europe’s elite coaches in waiting thanks to this season’s success, not just winning games but playing adventurous and tactically advanced football.
Bologna are seven points clear of fifth-placed Roma, but the top five sides in Italy are expected to make next season’s Champions League. The Rossoblu hold an eight-point lead over Atalanta in sixth, so they can be confident of making Europe’s top competition next term.
They have a chance to further cement themselves in the top four this weekend, with 17th-placed Udinese visiting Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. The Zebrette have lost three of their last four and they’ve won just three times on their travels this season.
Bologna are unbeaten at home to the sides below them this term, winning 12 of 15 matches. They’ve struck an impressive balance between attack and defence, scoring 48 times in 33 matches and conceding the second-fewest number of goals behind champions Inter.
On the other hand, Udinese have the third-lowest goals tally and only four sides have conceded more times this term. While they are responsible for one of Bologna’s few slips this season - winning 3-0 in the reverse fixture - Udinese look out of their depth in this trip.
Mainz vs FC Cologne
Two of the Bundesliga’s bottom four meet in a vital six-pointer on Sunday, with Cologne’s hopes of survival fading fast. They’re five points shy of third-bottom - which would leave them facing a playoff with a side from the second tier.
Cologne are also five points shy of fourth-bottom Mainz, but that gap looks set to grow this weekend. The hosts have rallied in recent weeks, putting together a five-match unbeaten run following a hammering at the hands of Bayern Munich.
Mainz have won three on the spin at home, scoring 10 times in that run. They’ve also picked up two draws on the road, including frustrating fourth-placed RB Leipzig. The home side are doing enough to escape the drop, they just need to maintain that form on Sunday.
Cologne have managed a single victory on their travels this term, losing seven trips. Only three teams in the Bundesliga have secured fewer points on the road, while Mainz have won two from two against the three sides beneath them.
The hosts demolished bottom-side Darmstadt 4-0 at home earlier this month and in March they ran out 2-0 winners against 16th-placed Bochum. Mainz head into this contest unbeaten in five at home and their growing confidence has been clear across that run, scoring four times in their last two home victories.
Meanwhile, it appears the wheels have come off for Cologne, who have been beaten 2-0 in each of their last two league games. When the visitors lose, they do tend to fall apart. Cologne have lost by two or more goals in 11 of their 16 defeats this term, while all but one of Mainz’s home victories have been by two clear goals.
Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano
Finally, Villarreal have rallied after winning just twice in their first 10 La Liga games this season to close in on the European spots. They’ve won five times across their last seven league matches, which is as many wins as they had through their first 21 games.
Villarreal have won six of their last nine in all competitions and their 2-1 victory at Almeria last weekend has put them within six points of the top seven with six games to go. It will take a big finish from the Yellow Submarine to close that gap, but they’ve got the third-best record behind Real Madrid and Barcelona across their last eight games.
Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano have been dreadful on the road this term and the visitors have little on the line going into this contest. Rayo have opened up a nine-point gap over Cadiz, moving into 15th spot. That has all but guaranteed them another season at this level. Will they have enough motivation left to shock Villarreal?
The visitors’ track record suggests they’ll struggle in this clash, having lost four of their last five trips. They’ve also failed to score in each of their last three on the road, while Rayo average a paltry 0.69 goals per away match this season.
Villarreal head into this clash having scored 16 times across their last seven, and with the visitors scoring in less than half of their away matches this season, a single goal could be enough for the Yellow Submarine, who have netted in nine consecutive La Liga matches.
If Villarreal fail to make the top seven, it’lllikely be down to their six defeats from six at home to the sides in the European spots. However, outside of that they’ve won five times and suffered only one defeat, so they should handle business against a Rayo team who aren’t up to much on their travels.
