The second of three ATP Masters 1000 tournaments on red clay takes place over the upcoming fortnight in Madrid. It’s the Mutua Madrid Open, where both Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz are back from injuries to play in front of the home crowd. Nadal, of course, is not among the favorites given his lack of activity throughout the past couple of seasons.
Alcaraz, on the other hand, is the two-time defending champion in Madrid. The 20-year-old Spaniard will be challenged by the likes of Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. Let's take a look at the best bets to be made on the men’s side in Madrid before play gets underway on Wednesday afternoon.
- Jannik Sinner
- Daniil Medvedev
- Alexander Zverev
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Andrey Rublev
Can Anyone Halt Sinner’s Streak?
With world No. 1 Novak Djokovic having withdrawn from Madrid, the second-ranked Sinner is the top seed. Of course, even if Djokovic was participating it’s safe to say that Sinner would still be considered the favorite. The 22-year-old has undoubtedly been the best player on tour dating back to last fall. He is 25-2 this season and 38-3 in his last 41 matches overall.
Dating back to September he has won titles in Beijing, Vienna, Melbourne (the Australian Open), Rotterdam and Miami. Sinner lost in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals to eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas and did not play last week in Barcelona, so he will be well rested to make a run in Madrid.
Although Sinner is in a tough top half of the draw, he would not have to face either Medvedev or Tsitsipas until the semifinals and either Casper Ruud or Grigor Dimitrov will be out prior to the quarters. Don’t be surprised if yet another title for the Italian is incoming.
JANNICK SINNER TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Medvedev A New Threat On Clay
It is true that clay is Medvedev’s worst surface, but he can no longer be discounted when he is playing on it. After all, the Russian rolled to the title at last year’s ATP 1000 tournament in Rome. Moreover, he reached the French Open quarterfinals in 2021. Sure, his clay-court results pale in comparison to his hard-court prowess – but Medvedev is improving on the red stuff year by year.
Fast conditions in Madrid are conducive to his game, too. If Medvedev can win in Rome, there is no reason why he can’t do the same in Madrid. The world No. 4 storms into this fortnight in great form, too. He has played in five tournaments this year and has reached at least the semifinals on four occasions.
That includes runner-up performances at the Australian Open (lost to Sinner) and Indian Wells Masters (lost to Alcaraz).
DANIIL MEDVEDEV TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Zverev A Mainstay Of Madrid Final
Madrid is without question one of Zverev’s favorite tournaments. He has played in the final three times in his last five appearances, winning twice before losing to Alcaraz in 2022. The German owns an amazing 21-4 lifetime match record at this event and since 2017 nobody other than Alcaraz and Tsitsipas has defeated him in Madrid.
What will Zverev do for an encore? One can only assume that more success is in store. The world No. 5 has advanced to the semifinals of three events in 2024 in addition to a quarterfinal showing in Indian Wells. He lost relatively early at clay-court tournaments in Monte-Carlo and Munich, but the former was to Tsitsipas and the latter was likely due to a lack of motivation.
Zverev played last week in Munich since it was at home, but he possibly had his mind already on Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros. The 27-year-old is rested and should be reenergized to make more noise on his Madrid stomping grounds.
ALEXANDER ZVEREV TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Big Hitting Hurkacz’s Could Be A Threat
The case with Hurkacz is similar to that of Medvedev. Clay is by no means the Pole’s best surface, but he loves fast conditions and the high altitude of Madrid makes him dangerous regardless of what is under his feet. Hurkacz is quite simply the biggest serve in professional tennis right now.
He was the ATP ace leader in 2023 and is well on his way to being the same in 2024. Returning his serve in Madrid is going to be a nightmare for opponents. It should also be noted that the world No. 9 kicked off his clay-court stretch with a title in Estoril, so his confidence on dirt is growing. Both Hurkacz and Zverev have great draws in Madrid.
They are on the opposite side from Sinner and would not have to face Alcaraz until the semis. A head-to-head showdown between Hurkacz and Zverev is in the cards for the quarterfinals. Whoever wins it would have a real chance to go all the way.
When Will Rublev’s Losing Streak End?
What has happened to Andrey Rublev? That is one of the most burning questions on the ATP Tour as the season’s second Grand Slam at Roland Garros looms large on the horizon. Has he collapsed mentally since being defaulted from a tournament in Dubai for berating a linesman two months ago?
Is his game too one-dimensional to compete with the very best players in the world? Whatever the case, the last couple of months have been a disaster for Rublev and he heads into Madrid on a four-match losing streak. All of that being said, Rublev could turn things around when you least expect it.
The eighth-ranked Russian triumphed at one of the three clay-court Masters 1000 events in 2023 (Monte-Carlo) and has reached the quarterfinals at the other two (Madrid in 2022, Rome in 2021). He is also a two-time French Open quarterfinalist. Rublev’s draw in the early rounds of this Madrid tournament are favorable, so his confidence could be restored – at least in part – by picking up a couple quick wins. After that, he just might be off to the races and back to his old self.
