The first of back-to-back WTA 1000 tournaments takes place over the upcoming fortnight in Madrid. It’s the Mutua Madrid Open, where top stars like Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are coming out to play. This is one of the busiest and most fun stretches of the tennis season, with Madrid followed by another 1000-point event in Rome and ultimately the French Open taking center stage to wrap up the clay-court swing.
Let's take a look at the best bets to be made on the women’s side in Madrid before play gets underway on Tuesday afternoon.
- Iga Swiatek
- Elena Rybakina
- Danielle Collins
- Naomi Osaka
- Marketa Vondrousova
Swiatek Seeks First Madrid Title
Swiatek has won just about everything there is to win on clay. However, one title that has eluded her is that of Madrid. The world No. 1 came close last year but lost in the final to Aryna Sabalenka. As if that isn’t motivation enough, Swiatek is coming off a semifinal loss to Rybakina this past week in Stuttgart.
That was a tournament she had won twice in a row. Despite the Stuttgart setback, it’s not like Swiatek is in a slump. The 22-year-old lifted the Doha trophy in February and triumphed at the Indian Wells WTA 1000 in March.
Even though fast conditions in Madrid may give her opponents a little bit more of an advantage than in other locations, the simple fact of the matter is that Swiatek is the best clay-court player in the world. It’s also worth noting that this event is set up well for her with both Sabalenka and Rybakina on the opposite side of the draw.
IGA SWIATEK TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Rybakina Hot After Stuttgart triumph
Clay may not be Rybakina’s favorite surface, but she likes fast conditions and – despite the surface – that is exactly what she will get in Madrid. Conditions were similar this past week in Stuttgart and Rybakina captured the title, upsetting Swiatek in the semifinals en route to victory.
Thus continues an impressive run of form for the world No. 24, who boasts a 26-4 record this season with additional titles in Brisbane and Abu Dhabi, plus runner-up performances in Doha and Miami. Rybakina would not have to face Sabalenka until the semis and Swiatek until the final, so the bracket puts her in good shape.
The 24-year-old Kazakh finds herself in a mostly soft quarter of the bracket, although a third-round test against Marta Kostyuk is dangerous. If Rybakina can make it past that round, she could go all the way.
ELENA RYBAKINA TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Collins On 13-match winning streak
Nobody on tour is hotter than Danielle Collins right now. The American has won back-to-back tournaments in Miami (1000 points) and Charleston (500). In those two events combined she lost a grand total of two sets.
Among her victories were defeats of Rybakina, Paula Badosa, Ons Jabeur, Sloane Stephens and Maria Sakkari. It is true that clay isn’t Collins’ best surface, but Charleston is played on that surface and that should give the 30-year-old plenty of confidence heading into Madrid (as if she needs any!).
Collins is a former French Open quarterfinalist (2020), too, so it’s clear that she is capable of finding success on the slow stuff.
The world No. 15 could run into Sabalenka in the fourth round, but at least she is in the half of the draw opposite Swiatek. Regardless of who is on the other side of the net, it’s hard to bet against Collins under almost any circumstances given her current hot streak.
DANIELLE COLLINS TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Osaka Continues Comeback
Osaka’s 2024 comeback following the birth of her first child has been a mixed bag of results. She has suffered three first-round losses in seven starts this season, but she reached the quarterfinals in Doha, the third round in Indian Wells and the third round in Miami. No, those are not amazing results by the standards of Osaka’s prime – but at this point in her comeback they should serve as confidence boosters.
Clay is not Osaka’s surface of choice (all four of her Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts) and an opening loss last week in Rouen isn’t a great start to this clay-court stretch. Still, Madrid isn’t your traditional clay-court tournament. Conditions are fast at high altitude and that is exactly what Osaka likes for her power tennis.
It should also be noted that the 26-year-old is in an ideal spot in the bracket as part of a struggling Coco Gauff’s quarter. Osaka would not meet Swiatek until the semifinals and Sabalenka, Rybakina or Collins until the championship match.
NAOMI OSAKA TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
Vondrousova Thrives On Big Stage
Vondrousova is an unassuming character who – like Rybakina – generally avoids the spotlight. Interestingly, however, despite that trait, both women absolutely thrive on the big stage. Another thing Vondrousova has in common with Rybakina is a Wimbledon winner’s trophy. The Czech left-hander captured the title at the All-England Club last summer, this af
ter finishing runner-up at the 2019 French Open. She also made a run to the quarterfinals at last year’s U.S. Open. Her sample size of success at the biggest tournaments in the world is large. Clay is Vondrousova’s favorite surface and it’s clear from previous Wimbledon and U.S. Open results that she enjoys fast conditions. This Madrid tournament is a combination of both of those factors.
The world No. 7 should also like her chances given a relatively favorable path through the draw. She would not go up against Sabalenka until the quarterfinals, Rybakina until the semis and Swiatek until the title match. As a longer shot (at least compared to the top favorites), Vondrousova has enticing value on the outright market in Madrid.
MARKETA VONDROUSOVA TO WIN THE MADRID OPEN
